Schreiber opened the discussion by emphasizing the efficiency and necessity of their AI-driven business model. “Every policy that we sell by law has to be profitable, so the marginal profit is significant,” Schreiber explained. He detailed how Lemonade’s innovative use of technology is not just a part of the business strategy but is central to their operations: “AI sells 98% of our policies, and 50% of our claims are handled from start to finish without any human intervention.”

The impact of AI on Lemonade’s operations has been profound, with Schreiber noting dramatic improvements in cost efficiency and customer service. “Consumers are delighted—they get a claim paid in three seconds. They’re not missing the human, but the cost just absolutely collapses, and we’re seeing that in the numbers, doubling the business,” he said.

Reflecting on the quarterly results, Schreiber shared that Lemonade has doubled its gross profit year-over-year and reduced losses by a third. This progress is a direct result of their aggressive growth strategy fueled by AI advancements. “The more we sell, the more profitable we get, and we expect to break into cash flow positivity before the year is out,” he affirmed.

During the interview, Schreiber also addressed how Lemonade leverages AI to gain a competitive edge: “Where other insurers see crude groupings of policyholders and are unable to see the nuances between them, we have orders of magnitude more insight, almost x-ray vision, relative to incumbency, and therefore, the ability to price differentially and choose who we underwrite with far greater precision perhaps than the industry is used to.”

Schreiber was optimistic about the future trajectory of Lemonade’s AI technology. “Machine learning and the tools of modern technology are transformative to the foundations of insurance,” he remarked. The CEO outlined how continued investments in AI are integral to Lemonade’s strategy, primarily as they aim to scale and maintain profitability. “We need to grow into profitability; insurance is not a business that’s profitable at sub-scale levels, so growth is a key condition to that profitability,” he explained.

Looking ahead, Schreiber reaffirmed the company’s focus on expanding its AI capabilities to enhance operational efficiencies and customer experiences further. Lemonade has raised its guidance for the year, signaling confidence in its business model and growth trajectory. “During Q-2, we continue to invest in growth, perhaps more than the market expected. So, we’ve been not merely growing fast, but accelerating growth. We are going to continue that trend line all the way up into the higher 20s throughout the year, and hopefully higher than that beyond,” Schreiber concluded.

With AI at the core of its operations, Lemonade is not just navigating the current market complexities. Still, it is also setting the stage for a new era of tech-driven insurance services.

Harley Finkelstein, COO of Shopify, discusses how COVID has dramatically sped up the timeline for commerce moving online and has also moved Shopify closer to its goal of becoming the world’s first retail operating system:

Shopify Evolving Into World’s First Retail Operating System

Most people assume that Shopify is an ecommerce provider. We have more than a million stores on Shopify. If you were to aggregate our stores in the US we’d be the second-largest online retailer in America. Of course, we’re not a retailer but we’re a platform. But we now have these great economies of scale that we’re using to level the playing field for entrepreneurs and small businesses. That being said, what really Shopify is evolving into is the world’s first retail operating system. 

What we’re trying to figure out is what do brands and entrepreneurs and retailers need, not just now but in the future? We think the future of retail is retail everywhere. A brand that’s going to be successful in 5, 10 or 15 years from now needs to sell across any platform and across any channel where they have customers. This idea of enabling Shopify merchants to very easily push their products to the Amazon Marketplace or the eBay marketplace or now the Walmart marketplace, that gives them access to a new set of consumers. The idea is that it all feeds back in one centralized back-office, the retail operating system, which is Shopify. 

Then we’ve gone ahead and asked what else can we do for these merchants? Can we do capital? We’ve now given out about a billion dollars worth of cash advances and loans to small businesses. We’re doing fulfillment and we’re doing shipping. We’re increasing the scope and the relationship that we have with the million stores on Shopify. This is allowing them to become category leaders.

COVID Speeds Up The Ecommerce Revolution

From our view, it seems like the commerce world that would have existed in the year 2030 has really been pulled into the year 2020 (as a result of the COVID crisis). We’ve seen ecommerce as a percent of total retail go from 15 percent to 25 percent in the last three months. That’s the same growth rate that we’ve seen over the last 10 years. What really has emerged here is sort of this tale of two retail worlds. On one side you have these resilient retailers that are doing great, they’re pivoting, and they’re expanding their businesses. On the other side, you have these resistant retailers who have not made it. In many ways, it’s probably the most exciting time for retail in a very long time. 

We talk a lot about these direct to consumer brands that are becoming category leaders. The Allbirds and the Gymsharks who started on Shopify when they were very small and have grown to become the incumbents in their industry. Every 25 seconds a brand new entrepreneur makes his or her (products) for sale on Shopify. We talk a lot about those new startups, those new DTC brands. But actually, what we’re also seeing on Shopify are companies like Lindt Chocolate or Heinz ketchup or Chipotle. They are signing up for Shopify and basically from like five days from contract to launch they are completely changing their businesses. 

This resiliency isn’t simply in the hands of just the smallest of brands. Big companies are also beginning to think a lot more about how to stay resilient in this time. They’re moving well beyond ecommerce or thinking about offline commerce now. They’re thinking about how do they sell across social media? How do they sell across different marketplaces? So no, I don’t think it’s too late (to enter ecommerce) but I do think they have to rethink their strategies.

Scott Heimes, Chief Marketing Officer at Zipwhip, discusses how two-way text messaging can be an extremely effective way to communicate with your customers in an interview on the B2B Growth Podcast:

76% of Consumers Have Received Text From Businesses

Over 76 percent of consumers have received some kind of text from a business. The most common are appointment reminders or bank alerts. This really just scratches the surface. Texting has so many applications beyond just alerts and reminders. There are sales and marketing, discount coupons and giveaways, customer support and service, recruiting and staffing, and internal communications at places like educational institutions. It’s so new and businesses are continuing to innovate in this medium. There are a lot of powerful use cases for businesses.

We have over 30,000 businesses using our software today. They range from very small businesses like yoga studios or lawn care services all the way up to multi-billion dollar insurance companies that are using our solution in their claim call centers. Industries include financial services, staffing and recruiting, healthcare, legal, and more. We have 156 professional sports teams that use our solution. They use it for ticket sales and customer service. There are lots of fitness gyms, radio and TV stations that use our text solution as well. It really does run the gamut of anybody that wants to communicate with their customers via this preferred medium.

Report Shows Increasing Use of Texting by Businesses

I just talked to the Director of Communications for the Sound Transit Authority, the public transit authority in Seattle, who uses our solution. They publish an 800 number to text or call when people see problems on the trains. Rather than get on the phone and calling, more and more people are texting those alerts. It’s really an interesting use case. Another one is during a recent hurricane down in Houston we had an insurance agent that was using our software to communicate with all of his customers in the area because the phone lines were largely down. Texting was working well to create engagement and communication during those tough times.

We recently created a report called the State of Texting which is a deep research study that highlights the adoption curve of text messaging as a business communication tool. It identifies how many consumers are already being texted by businesses as well as many other key insights and trends. One of the things we saw was that there are a lot of one-way texting tools where you get an alert from your doctor’s office, for instance, but you can’t respond to it. It was actually fired off by a CRM using an API that was just one way.

Text is a Great Way to Increase Engagement

Increasingly, consumers would prefer to be able to respond to those texts and have an actual interaction with a human on the other side to either reschedual that appointment or alert them that they are going to be five minutes late or something like that. We are seeing a trend where people want to be able to respond to texts and have an interaction as opposed to continuing to be one way.

For businesses, the communication channels of email and phone are just becoming less and less effective. Text is a great way to increase your engagement and responsiveness with consumers. They’ll actually respond to a text. One of the things we are doing as a company is everything we can to maintain the purity of the texting medium to make sure that spam doesn’t leak its way into this channel.

>> Listen to the complete interview with Zipwhip CMO Scott Heimes on the B2B Growth podcast.

According to Digital Trends, overvolting seems to have caused overheating issues, with customers returning the company’s motherboards in droves. Some users have reported bulging computers and burn marks, along with dead processors.

Asus has issued a statement in an attempt to ease concerns:

We want to address the concerns that have been raised by our users about whether recent BIOS updates will impact the warranty of ASUS AM5 motherboards. We would like to reassure our customers that both beta and fully validated BIOS updates for ASUS AM5 motherboards are covered by the original manufacturer’s warranty. We would also like to confirm the following points:

1.The ASUS AM5 motherboard warranty also covers all AMD EXPO, Intel XMP, and DOCP memory configurations. 2.All recent BIOS updates follow the latest AMD voltage guidelines for AMD Ryzen 7000 series processors.

Furthermore, we would like to reiterate our commitment to supporting the AMD AM5 platform and our customers. For any further inquiries about your ASUS AM5 motherboard, please contact our customer service for support. Thank you for choosing ASUS.

As Digital Trends points out, EXPO profiles are not usually covered under warranty since they are considered a form of overclocking. The fact that Asus is willing to warranty them is an indication just how far the company is willing to go to ease customer concerns.

“We can’t wait for customers to use Walmart+ as a way to keep more time on their calendars and money in their pockets,” said Janey Whiteside, chief customer officer, Walmart. “We designed Walmart+ to be the ultimate life hack for customers, pulling together benefits they told us would be most helpful to them today and in the future. Its usefulness will only grow from here.”

The initial list of Walmart+ benefits is below. The company says that the list of benefits will continue to grow over time:

• Unlimited free delivery: In-store prices as fast as same-day on more than 160,000 items from fresh produce, to milk, eggs and bread to tech and toys to household essentials. This service was previously known as Delivery Unlimited – a subscription service that allows customers to place an unlimited number of grocery deliveries for a low, flat yearly or monthly fee. Current subscribers will automatically become Walmart+ members.
• Scan & Go: Unlock Scan & Go in the Walmart app – a fast way to shop in-store. Using the Walmart app, customers can scan their items as they shop and pay using Walmart Pay for a quick, easy, touch-free payment experience.
• Fuel discounts: Fill up and save up to 5 cents a gallon at nearly 2,000 Walmart, Murphy USA and Murphy Express fuel stations. Sam’s Club fuel stations will soon be added to this lineup.

Bill Simon, former CEO of Walmart, discusses the launch of Walmart+ designed to take on Amazon by combining free delivery of groceries and general merchandise within a paid subscription service:

Walmart+ Goes Head To Head With Amazon

Walmart has long coveted a subscription service to go head to head with Amazon. They tried three or four times but this one is different. Walmart+ combines both their grocery and their general merchandise strength which is really trying to recreate the supercenter online through a subscription service. If they can use the frequency of their food business to also help sell their general merchandise line they can mix it out better and hopefully get to profitability sooner.

Retail has actually been better (this last quarter) than most people have expected. It’s not been even. There have been categories and retailers who have struggled. By and large, its help up pretty well. The pandemic accelerated digital ecommerce development by five to ten years. If you were not up to speed on that or didn’t get up to speed very quickly you would be behind. As we head into the fall it will be really interesting to see how it goes.

Holiday Selling Season Uncertain

Typically, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, that weekend has been really critical to the selling season. If you missed that it would be very difficult to have a really good holiday selling season. With the delayed openings now and Thanksgiving not on the line, the focus is going to be online and there won’t be as many in-person Black Friday deals. It’s going to be difficult for retailers to make up all that volume online. The holiday selling season is going to be a bit uncertain.

I’m really speaking from the consumer perspective when I say that digital ecommerce accelerated by five to ten years in the last six months. It accelerated at that pace and people had to head in that direction. That is likely where retail is going to head but it is going to still be a mix. The vast majority of retail will remain brick and mortar but ecommerce will take a larger role in the facilitation by online pickup in store. Customers are now completely blending the omnichannel retail experience.

The Amazon Effect: Digital Sales Rule!

There’s also been really a change from an investment standpoint. This has been really more the Amazon effect than anything I can think of. Five years ago, it used to be, grow your profit faster than your sales and your share price would move forward. Now, if you’re not growing digital sales at a hyperactive rate it’s really hard to get a good valuation on your company. Walmart is a great example of a retailer employing this strategy.

They’ve invested a ton of money, almost a third of their operating income they’ve given up in order to build an ecommerce business. Yet, investors have rewarded them by buying their stock. It’s near historic highs.

Harley Finkelstein, COO of Shopify, discusses how COVID has dramatically sped up the timeline for commerce moving online and has also moved Shopify closer to its goal of becoming the world’s first retail operating system:

Shopify Evolving Into World’s First Retail Operating System

Most people assume that Shopify is an ecommerce provider. We have more than a million stores on Shopify. If you were to aggregate our stores in the US we’d be the second-largest online retailer in America. Of course, we’re not a retailer but we’re a platform. But we now have these great economies of scale that we’re using to level the playing field for entrepreneurs and small businesses. That being said, what really Shopify is evolving into is the world’s first retail operating system. 

What we’re trying to figure out is what do brands and entrepreneurs and retailers need, not just now but in the future? We think the future of retail is retail everywhere. A brand that’s going to be successful in 5, 10 or 15 years from now needs to sell across any platform and across any channel where they have customers. This idea of enabling Shopify merchants to very easily push their products to the Amazon Marketplace or the eBay marketplace or now the Walmart marketplace, that gives them access to a new set of consumers. The idea is that it all feeds back in one centralized back-office, the retail operating system, which is Shopify. 

Then we’ve gone ahead and asked what else can we do for these merchants? Can we do capital? We’ve now given out about a billion dollars worth of cash advances and loans to small businesses. We’re doing fulfillment and we’re doing shipping. We’re increasing the scope and the relationship that we have with the million stores on Shopify. This is allowing them to become category leaders.

COVID Speeds Up The Ecommerce Revolution

From our view, it seems like the commerce world that would have existed in the year 2030 has really been pulled into the year 2020 (as a result of the COVID crisis). We’ve seen ecommerce as a percent of total retail go from 15 percent to 25 percent in the last three months. That’s the same growth rate that we’ve seen over the last 10 years. What really has emerged here is sort of this tale of two retail worlds. On one side you have these resilient retailers that are doing great, they’re pivoting, and they’re expanding their businesses. On the other side, you have these resistant retailers who have not made it. In many ways, it’s probably the most exciting time for retail in a very long time. 

We talk a lot about these direct to consumer brands that are becoming category leaders. The Allbirds and the Gymsharks who started on Shopify when they were very small and have grown to become the incumbents in their industry. Every 25 seconds a brand new entrepreneur makes his or her (products) for sale on Shopify. We talk a lot about those new startups, those new DTC brands. But actually, what we’re also seeing on Shopify are companies like Lindt Chocolate or Heinz ketchup or Chipotle. They are signing up for Shopify and basically from like five days from contract to launch they are completely changing their businesses. 

This resiliency isn’t simply in the hands of just the smallest of brands. Big companies are also beginning to think a lot more about how to stay resilient in this time. They’re moving well beyond ecommerce or thinking about offline commerce now. They’re thinking about how do they sell across social media? How do they sell across different marketplaces? So no, I don’t think it’s too late (to enter ecommerce) but I do think they have to rethink their strategies.

Brand growth expert Austin Brawner of Ecommerce Influence interviewed Justuno CEO Erik Christiansen about conversion optimization:

Retailers Should Focus On The Last Mile

Conversion optimization is the same as it’s been for a while. People still don’t want to focus on the last mile. Finally, in 2020, we saw that shift when advertising got so expensive. Everyone is like, okay, we have minimal budgets, how do we stretch them? Finally, with all the competition from COVID where everyone’s shifting online everyone, they are saying that we can’t keep just throwing money at this. We’ve got to come up with the real problem.

When we first launched we had to pivot immediately because when we mentioned the word coupon or the word pop-up people just ran the other way. It’s been ten years of education and we’ve kept to the same message of investing in your current website visitors. Our main job still is to educate the online retailer about the basics. We ask most businesses, as you know with email, are you doing a 30, 60, 90 day, the basics? Are you doing a cart abandonment email? You cover the basics and you get so much further ahead.

There’s always low-hanging fruit

Everyone thinks businesses are run perfectly but most businesses are just a mess. What I’ve been trying to do is challenge my team to look at the basics. There’s always low-hanging fruit to improve your business. When it comes to retail, where’s the low-hanging fruit? Let’s break out your business to the basics like new visitors versus repeat. With the new ones, how many are there? What percentage of emails are we capturing? Are we sending those emails to your ESP? Are we putting in the basic workflows? There’s so much low-hanging fruit.

Then, you’re sending these emails, are you reinforcing those campaigns on-site? You spend so much time designing the email, sending it. Then it comes to that shopping cart abandonment. Do you even know how many people come to your cart each day? Do you know how many carts get abandoned and the dollar value? What can we do? The basics are still very much there in terms of opportunity to help people increase their sales lead capture and sales. How do you take one marketing dollar and stretch it as far as you possibly can? How do you also get creative? It’s all about creativity. That’s what marketing is and that’s what retail is. Retail is retailing and getting your hands dirty.

The Science Behind Energy Drinks

Athletes tend to reach for pre-workout drinks before any strenuous activity because the amino acids that are found in them can help increase energy, stamina, and help prevent damage to cells. 87% of pre workout drinks contain  beta-alanine, an amino acid that improves strength and endurance. 71% of these drinks also include citrulline, another amino acid that can help increase stamina and energy. Some of these drinks also include taurine which can help prevent cell damage that can occur during exercise. All of these amino acids working together along with caffeine can lead to an overall more intense workout with less fatigue. 

Looking at athletes off the field, esports players also reach for energy drinks when it comes time to play in virtual tournaments. Many energy drink companies sponsor some of the biggest esports teams today, and gamers tend to use these drinks for the same reasons athletes on the field do. Energy drinks include some of the same ingredients as pre workout ingredients and offer similar benefits. Gamers use these drinks to increase focus, reaction time, and stamina which are all important in maximizing their overall gaming performance.

Athletes both on and off the field are using energy drinks and pre-workout in order to improve their performance, but there are still people who oppose drinking these beverages. Long term use of pre-workout can increase muscle mass and strength, but using large doses in a short time can lead to adverse effects. It is important to remember to use energy drinks and pre-workout in a safe and healthy way in order to reduce the likelihood that these side effects will occur.  Opponents of energy drink use have also noted that these drinks are too caffeinated and too artificial. In fact, many pre-workout brands have many ingredients that aren’t even listed on the label! 

What’s in an Energy Drink?

In getting criticism about ingredient use and the amount of caffeine in their drinks, many energy drinks companies have started making changes to their recipes. Many brands are switching to using more plant-based energy ingredients such as guarana and green tea. This allows for less artificial caffeine ingredients to be used and leads to an overall healthier product for consumers to enjoy. Brands are also using nootropic elements that are used to increase focus, and are using overall better quality and organic ingredients. 

In Conclusion

With these changes being made to already popular products, it is expected that even more people will be using energy drinks and pre-workout to help in their daily routines or before exercise activity. With so many benefits now being packed into a healthier product, it’s no wonder athletes on the field and gamers on the virtual field are using energy drinks to boost their performance.

Learn more about energy drinks and how they can help your workout in the infographic below:

Contamination in Our Water

Unfortunately, 1 of 5 Americans have been exposed to contaminated drinking water in the past 10 years. Some of the most common contaminants are nitrates, arsenic, and microorganisms. Microorganisms can include bacteria and viruses that can cause widespread illness in humans. Contaminated water can spread diseases such as cholera and dysentery and waterborne illnesses cause over 6,000 deaths every year in the US.

Aside from the tragedy that waterborne illnesses can bring, the cost of these illnesses totals over $3 billion a year! This cost comes directly from a loss of water sanitation. It can easily be solved with mainstream products in the US. Clearly we want our water supply to be as clean as possible, so can we accomplish that?

Filtering water is the best way to ensure that the water that is coming straight from the tap hasn’t been contaminated by anything. Filters can remove 99.99% of bacteria as well as 99.99% of viruses. This makes the risk of infection from contaminated drinking water significantly less. Filtered water also removes over 200 other contaminants such as fluoride or debris from pipes. 

Much Water is Wasted

Water is such an important part of our lives. It’s surprising how much is wasted. With contaminants in water, it would seem that consumers would try and save as much clean water as possible, but this is not the case. Americans use an average of 82 gallons of water every day. This number comes from water used for bathing, cooking, cleaning, and drinking, our taps are always running! 

Using water filtration systems, water usage can be cut down. Since the filter is filled one time, it doesn’t have to be filled again. Filtration systems also come in a range of sizes to accommodate any consumer’s needs. Filters can be portable and easy to travel with, or hold up to six gallons to host a number of people! This wide variety of sizes makes it so that consumers can make sure that no matter the occasion, they can readily have a supply of clean drinking water. 

In Conclusion

Water is integral to our lives. There is a limited amount of water that is drinkable on the planet. We must make sure to minimize the water that is wasted. It is also important to make sure that the water that we are drinking is clean and safe, and this is all possible through the use of water filtration systems. Learn more about water filtration systems in the infographic below: 

The Functional Water Market

Consumers are turning away from sugary drinks and choosing functional waters, or herb-infused sparkling or still waters, that include healthy additives like vitamins, minerals, and vegetables.  More people desiring products infused with healthier ingredients that help with weight loss as well as nutrition have caused the functional waters market to grow in popularity.  By 2025, the global functional water market is even expected to reach $18.24 billion.  Consumer preference for eating organic foods have led to increased interest in finding organic beverages as well. As more people learn about the health benefits of organic products and thus look for beverages that do not contain sugar or caffeine and are naturally flavored, brands are providing solutions by developing organic drinks.  By 2027, the global organic beverages market is estimated to be worth $32.78 billion. 

Coffee Trends

There are some consumers who are aware of the health benefits of drinking coffee and see the drink as a great alternative to sugary beverages.  Coffee is also easy to buy in cans, bottles, and cartons while new innovative products make the drinking experience enjoyable.  Coffee has and still charges up the world in the morning, and the demand for the drink will only continue to increase.  In fact, the ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee market is believed to reach $133.9 billion by 2027.  However, for those who want to stay away from caffeine, tea is a great alternative.  People who are conscious of their healthy lifestyle are looking towards highly oxidized and herbal teas to get the energy boost they need without consuming caffeine.  In fact, innovative ways of revamping the cold tea category with cold brews and various milk blends have increased the market’s popularity with many predicting the global tea market to reach $68.95 billion by 2027.  

The Rise of the Mocktail

Now, there are even healthier versions of alcoholic beverages as consumers desire to taste different flavors in their alcohol.  Consumer preferences for drinks with lower alcohol content due to growing awareness of the effects of excessive alcohol consumption have caused brands to craft RTD alcoholic beverages with healthier ingredients and flavors that include tropical fruits, apples, and berries.  More bars are also adding non-alcoholic mixed drinks options to their menus called a mocktail.  With more customers being non-drinkers (especially the younger generations) who still want to take part in the bar scene, a mocktail is a healthier option to alcohol that looks luxurious and satisfies people’s desire for complex flavors.  A mocktail can be enjoyed by anybody, not just pregnant women, like children who want to share a special drink with their families for a special event.  

The non-alcoholic beverage market is now on the rise, and there is no stopping it any time soon.

As usual, some opinionated Redditers expressed their thoughts on the ads:

1-800 Flowers CEO discusses the company’s growth that was accelerated by the pandemic:

Ecommerce Growth Accelerated During Pandemic

What we’ve seen is an acceleration of growth in our company that began back in 2018 and really then accelerated even further in 2020 with the pandemic. It’s driven by the need for us as people to connect and express ourselves. As a company whose vision is to inspire more human expression, connection, and celebration, and as an ecommerce leader, we’re well-positioned in the trends that we see coming out of this pandemic. We think these trends are sustainable going forward.

We started out as one flower shop many years ago. What we’ve done is created this e-commerce platform for growth, a platform for expression, connection, and celebration. It starts with this all-star family of brands that we have led by Harry & David, 1-800-Flowers, Cheryl’s Cookies, Shari’s Berries, and our recent acquisition just this past August of Personalization Mall. You see us now as a company in the expression and connection business with a leadership position in floral, a leadership position in gourmet food gifting, and certainly now leadership and position in expressions and personalized items which is a fast-growing market.

You’ll continue to continue to see us grow by organic product development of products that help customers express and connect. And as we’ve done through acquisition, adding to that platform and leveraging that platform that we’ve built.

Need To Express and Connect Is a Lasting Trend

Hopefully, the vaccines accelerate and we turn to some sense of normalcy sooner rather than later. As we look at our business, the momentum we saw began in 2018 and 2019 and then accelerated with the pandemic. We’ve been on a good momentum growth even before the pandemic and we really see ourselves now as a bigger stronger company than we were prior to it. We’ve acquired Personalization Mall just this past August and by putting it on our platform and leveraging our digital marketing expertise we accelerated the growth of that company. It grew by 50 percent this last quarter.

A year ago August we acquired Shari’s Berries and took a business that was stagnant and losing money to now one that’s got a nice growth rate and is generating a nice contribution margin as well. If we just keep our focus on what the consumer is looking for to help express and connect then we’ll be continuing to see double-digit growth for some time to come. That trend that we’ve all learned from being isolated, our need to express and connect is a lasting trend coming out of this pandemic along with the shift from offline to online.

John Copeland of Adobe, predicts that ecommerce spending could be $930 billion, or just under $1 trillion, in 2021:

COVID was a catalyst to the ecommerce channel last year. What we saw when you look at the full calendar year of 2020 was $813 billion dollars in ecommerce spending, 42 percent growth over 2019. That’s like combining two years’ worth of growth into a single year. Consumers have really embraced the online channel to meet their needs during these challenging times.

We’re all kind of wondering what (the vaccine rollout) is going to do in terms of ecommerce. We’re forecasting this year somewhere between $850 billion, only a 5 percent over last year, and up to $930 billion, which would be a 14 percent increase over last year. The 5 percent increase would be if everybody gets vaccinated and rushes out and we see kind of a slowdown. The $930 billion, 14 percent increase, would be more typical of what we see year over year in the ecommerce channel.

Buy Now Pay Later Up 215 Percent Over Last Year

Buy Now Pay Later is very much good for retailers. In fact, what we’ve seen in February this year relative to February 2020, which is kind of on the cusp of the pandemic, is a 215 percent increase year over year in buy now pay later orders. In terms of retailers, it comes along with larger average order values. What we’re seeing is 18 percent larger orders when customers are using that service. Unlike layaway, with buy now pay later you actually get the goods upfront, you don’t have to wait until the payment’s done.

Another trend is Buy Online, Pick Up In-Store, also known as BOPUS. In February of this year, we’re already seeing it growing 67 percent year on year. It’s always been huge and growing during the holiday season but now people are clearly working it in as part of their fulfillment options. Picking up in the store gives consumers the ability to schedule it according to their availability and knowing that stock will be there for them when they want to pick it up.

Early Uber investor Jason Calacanis says that unlike Lyft, Uber built a very anti-fragile business with the combination of Eats and Rides and has become relentlessly focused:

Uber Built A Very Anti-Fragile Business

What we’re really going to see here is that Uber built a very anti-fragile business in regards to having the Eats business and having the Rides business. When the Ride’s business went down that kind of indicates people are staying home. When they stay home they use Uber Eats and increasingly Drizly, Cornershop, and Postmates. People are ordering groceries. Watching the Uber team take on this challenge of the pandemic year has been really impressive.

It reminds me a lot of Disney and how they got focused around Disney+ as the center of the organization. They looked at what was happening in the pandemic and said parks are great, merch is great, movies are great, let’s just put everything into Disney+ and accelerate that. Look what happened to that company. I’ve got to give Dara Khosrowshahi a lot of credit. He got rid of a lot of the noise like self-driving cars which are a multi-decade kind of vision. He sold off the places where they weren’t going to be in first, second, or even third place. He did JVs and sold off those businesses like Russia and China, etc. That’s well documented.

The Space Can’t Have 50 Players Losing Money

They found a new really inspiring footing which is if Amazon is two-day delivery going to one-day, Uber’s is one-hour delivery going to 10-minute delivery. That is Travis Kalanick’s original vision for Uber. When I met with him when he was building the company and I was the third or fourth investor his vision was this is a logistic company. We took atoms in the world made them bits on the internet. Now we’re going to take bits on your phone, an app, and we’re going to move atoms in the real world. That was his original pitch. Here we are in decade two where I’m still own the same shares I’ve had since I bought them for a penny or whatever back in 2008 or 2009. I remain super bullish. I have a huge position in Uber and I’m going to hold it for the next decade.

It’s fairly obvious that there are acquisitions and consolidation that need to happen in the space in order for it to be profitable. The space can’t have 50 players losing money. We’ve watched Lyft, Postmates, Doordash, and everybody, say that we’re going to have to charge what this product is worth. We’re going to have to stop burning money. There’s no free VC money. The public markets are not down with lose money forever and grow. I think we found a happy medium here between what public market investors want, profits, and what private market investors want, growth.

Uber Has Become Relentlessly Focused

I think Dara has done an exceptional job. Some things will come from acquisitions but most of it has to be just relentless execution and focus. That is the inspiring part of what happened here. Uber has become relentlessly focused. Things that were coming in 10 or 20 years like self-driving in all likelihood will be a commodity business. In 10 or 20 years there’ll be five companies who have that technology. VTOLs are very fascinating and very interesting, but again that’s probably seven, eight, nine, or ten years off as a very niche product.

Charlie O’Shea, retail analyst at Moody’s, and Bill Simon, former president and CEO of Walmart, discussed Walmart’s blowout quarterly results:

Walmart Is Going To Be Tough To Stop

This is just a phenomenal quarter for Walmart. It’s good on all fronts. It really is an indicator that the consumer is still there. Once we sort through all this COVID stuff the consumer is willing to spend. I’m particularly impressed by Walmart’s operating income. I’ve been watching that for several years and it’s been challenged as they move their business to digital and to e-commerce. Big growth and operating income have been under pressure.

Walmart grew its operating income by almost nine percent. Even adjusted for currency it is in the mid-teens. That’s phenomenal. Brett Biggs is one of the best CFOs in the country in my view and they manage the company very well. It looks like they’ve been able to get the e-commerce growth under control in a way that can deliver some pathway to profitability. If they can do that they’re just going to be tough to stop.

Walmart Ecommerce Business Is Humming

Every quarter it looks like they’re running on all cylinders and now the engine just keeps getting bigger. We’ve gone from an eight-cylinder engine to a 12-cylinder engine. With the e-commerce business humming the way it is and the way the company’s been able to integrate it with the store base, with curbside and everything else, this is a tough one. This is really setting a high bar for brick and mortar retail and it’s giving Amazon something to really think about.

It’s how does Amazon compete with Walmart not how does Walmart compete with Amazon? With an almost doubling of online revenue for this quarter we’re starting to see this battle really escalate. If you were open you obviously had advantages. That’s not exactly a lightning bolt coming out of the sky. But I think what we’re seeing with the consumer is they have money they’re willing to spend and they weren’t able to spend it for a while because a lot of places weren’t open. Now that things are starting to reopen there’s a lot of pent-up demand here.

Consumers Are Shifting Spending And Walmart’s Benefitting

During the early days of the pandemic during lockdowns no one’s buying pants, no one’s buying blouses, and no one’s buying tops because you can’t eat those and you also can’t use them to clean your house. So people had kind of shifted their demand towards the essentials and the consumables. Now they’re moving in another direction and Walmart’s benefiting. They benefited from the early blast of spending and now they’re benefiting as it expands. The margins going up indicates they’re selling a lot of other non-consumable stuff because those margins are lower.

I also cover the auto retailers and the auto retailers showed an awful lot of resilience so far this year. Q2 numbers for my rated universe were much better than we expected and we didn’t expect them to be that bad. The consumer clearly has money and the stimulus obviously helps the folks that are still employed are out there and still spending. That portends well for Target tomorrow and Best Buy next week. Home Depot also popped a big number today. The essential type retailers are still going to be benefiting.

Max Levchin, CEO of Affirm, describes the company’s debit card as the anti-credit card:

Affirm’s Debit Card Is The Anti-Credit Card

It should not be called a credit card for sure in part because it’s sort of the anti-credit card. I don’t need to be provocative but the idea of credit cards fundamentally is to get you to spend, get into debt, and stay in debt. You will not know when you’re done paying off any specific purchase. You’re not really sure exactly how much you’re gonna pay. You should actually expect late fees if you miss a payment.

Literally, every single one of these things is the exact opposite for Affirm’s card. You know exactly what you’re going to pay. You know exactly what the schedule of repayment is and there’ll be no late fees under any circumstances. It’s sort of the exact opposite in many ways. It does serve the same purpose. You get to pay for things right now or over time.

Card Form Factor Is Extraordinarily Elegant

I don’t really know how long the card as a form factor will be with us, but I do think it’s extraordinarily elegant. The majority of the offline world certainly in the US still transacts with plastic and chips these days so I think it’s important to meet the customer where they are. I do know that our user base is primarily millennials and Gen Z’s. They love their debit cards they love to transact with them offline.

The purpose of this product was to bring by functionality that they have really loved online and really offline as well with us but have never had in a card. Particularly, a card that is embedded inside their daily everyday spend tool. The debit card form factor is a metaphor for everyday spend and that’s what we’re trying to get to.

What I Care About Is The Return Of The Country

The primary signal that I care about is the return of the country. We’re all kind of holding our breath a little bit to see when vaccines are coming. There are a bunch of reopenings and, knock on wood, everything sort of starts to come back to a little bit more normal. There’s just an incredible amount of opportunity to grow with this product that we have. It’s seen so much adoption in areas like travel, which has been effectively zero growth for the last several quarters because of the pandemic.

There are lots of interesting new challenges as the country reopens. The dominant thread is that there is that reopening creates a lot more opportunity for this product. We have proven that this product is what our customer wants and needs. This debit card will absolutely meet them where they are as they hopefully come out of their houses and go into restaurants and coffee shops and start traveling and buy tickets.

Shopify President Harley Finkelstein says the rebels―the entrepreneurs and the small business owners―are the heroes of the Shopify story… and the rebels are winning:

We Are Arming The Rebels

There’s a lot to be optimistic about even in the second half of 2021. It feels like the retail world that would have existed in 2030 was pulled back to 2020. We certainly have seen this massive catalyst to an acceleration in digitalization in commerce and retail. But actually, we are writing the future of commerce and entrepreneurs are really the heroes of the Shopify story. We are arming the rebels… the entrepreneurs, the small business owners, the independent brands, and the rebels are winning.

Consumers have been voting with their wallets for the last ten months or so to buy from independent brands wherever possible. In 2020, 47 million consumers purchased from a Shopify merchant. That’s up 52 from 2019. Our merchant’s performance helped expand Shopify’s lead on an aggregated basis to be the second-largest e-commerce retailer in the U.S. Shopify is now about nine percent of all US ecom. If you think about it, Shopify is a proxy for independent retail and for direct-to-consumer retail.

Shop Pay Launches Accelerated Checkout

We only succeed when our merchants do. This has led to us having more than 1.7 million merchants on Shopify. This includes people from first-time entrepreneurs making their first sale every 28 seconds to the likes of O’Neill and Hallmark and Herman Miller and Purina. Diageo, who also just launched in Shopify and in Q4 alone revenue nearly doubled year over year to $978 million. There’s a lot to be optimistic about. Actually, the future of retail and commerce we think is going to look a lot more like these independent brands than these sort of department stores that existed in the past.

Shop Pay is our accelerated checkout. We just announced it last week. We know that it not only helps merchants get more sales, it helps buyers convert better and much faster. Now we think that providing it to the Instagram and Facebook platforms means that our merchants can not only access new customers on those platforms, and frankly anywhere where customers are, but now can transact in a more efficient way. Shopify is becoming far more than an e-commerce provider.

Future of Retail Is Wherever Consumers Are

We are trying to build the world’s first retail operating system, which makes it as easy as possible and where the cost of failure is as low as possible, so more people can participate in entrepreneurship. We think the future retail is not online or offline or anywhere, in particular, it’s wherever consumers are. That’s what we’re trying to build. Seeing Shop Pay move into Facebook and Instagram is a really great way to demonstrate where the future of retail is happening.

We are trying to get to a point where we completely democratize entrepreneurship. We use a 100-year perspective and we want to build a 100-year company. We’re about 15 years into our journey right now and we have 85 years left to go. In the long run, we’re happy where Shopify is but frankly, on the topic of more participation in the equity markets, we think that is also entrepreneurial and we think that’s also democratizing.

Chapek attributes the company’s massive streaming growth to its huge collection of brands. “The wealth of IP from our unrivaled collection of brands and franchises provides us with an incredible breadth and depth of storylines and characters to mine for Disney+ and our other streaming services,” says Chapek. “We have the ability to interconnect these storylines and characters in unprecedented ways as we saw with The Mandalorian and WandaVision tying into the broader Star Wars and Marvel franchises. We’re excited to continue exploring the endless possibilities that this unique ecosystem provides.”

DTC Results Improved By $650 Million

“We believe that we’ve got a great price-value relationship,” says Chapek. “I think the best insulation we’ve got (to lower churn) is to keep the price-value relationship very high and there’s no better way to do it than powerhouse franchises cranking out regular new releases on a monthly basis.”

Disney’s direct-to-consumer results have improved by nearly $650 million versus the prior year. “Last quarter, we guided to direct-to-consumer operating income declining by $100 million versus the prior year under our former segment structure,” says Disney CFO Christine McCarthy. “Our reported results are $750 million higher than that guidance.”

Lower Disney Losses Attributed To Disney+

Disney attributes their lower losses to the growth of the Disney+ streaming service. “A lower loss in the first quarter compared to the prior year was driven by subscriber growth partially offset by higher costs due to the launch and expansion of Disney+. With 94.9 million paid subscribers at the end of Q1, Disney+’s global net additions were 21.2 million versus Q4.”

“Disney+ Hotstar subscriber additions continued their strong growth trend with Disney+ Hotstar subscribers making up approximately 30% of our global subscriber base,” said McCarthy. “We also saw strong additions to our subscriber base from our November launch in Latin America.”

Disney Happy With Level Of Churn

Disney is also very happy with its level of churn especially as it relates to subscribers who came into the Disney+ service via their Verizon partnership which helped power its launch last year. “We are very pleased with what we’ve seen so far on the level of churn,” said McCarthy. “And as our product offering matures and we put more content into the service and our subscriber base becomes more tenured, we expect to see our churn rates continue to decline.

So in regard to the specific churn related to the anniversary of the Verizon launch promotion from last November 2020, we’re really happy with the conversion numbers that we have seen there going from the promotion to become paid subscribers.”

100 New Titles a Year

“With Disney+ originals along with the theatrical releases and the library titles, we’ll be adding something new to the service every week,” noted McCarthy. “We are very pleased with the engagement overall. We believe we’re going to reach that cadence of getting content on the service every week within the next few years. We’ve also set that target for 100-plus new titles per year. And that’s across Disney Animation, Disney Live Action, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, Nat Geo. And of course, we’ll continue to add more to our library as we go through time as well.”

“Given the value of growing our sub base, we are continuing to invest in high-quality content,” says McCarthy. “We believe that content is the single biggest driver to not only acquiring subs, but retaining them.”

“We’re loving the enthusiasm from customers so far—from the photos we see online to the car fans who stop our drivers for a first-hand look at the vehicle,” said Ross Rachey, Director of Amazon’s Global Fleet and Products. “From what we’ve seen, this is one of the fastest modern commercial electrification programs, and we’re incredibly proud of that.”

Ross Rachey, Director of Amazon’s Global Fleet, outlines the company’s electric delivery plans:

“We are reimagining sustainable delivery,” says Ross Rachey, Director of Amazon’s Global Fleet. “Climate change doesn’t allow us to sit back and be passive. We can’t wait. This vehicle went from sketch, to design, to on-road testing with customer deliveries in just over a year. And we’ll build on that momentum heading into full-scale production.”

“Amazon made a commitment to be net-zero carbon by 2040,” notes Rachey. “Electrifying our fleet is going to help us get there. We’ve relied on Rivian’s automotive expertise. We’ve listened to our drivers. We’ve created something that’s at the leading edge of safety technology, that’s better for our drivers, better for the planet, and unlike anything that’s out on the road today. We’ve reset expectations for electric delivery vehicles. And we’re just getting started.”

Amazon partnered with Rivian, leveraging its customizable skateboard platform to create a first-of-its-kind all-electric delivery vehicle. “Rivian’s purpose is to deliver products that the world didn’t already have, to redefine expectations through the application of technology and innovation,” said RJ Scaringe, Rivian Founder and CEO. “This milestone is one example of how Rivian and Amazon are working toward the world of 2040, and we hope it inspires other companies to fundamentally change the way that they operate.”

The current fleet of vehicles was built at Rivian’s studio in Plymouth, Michigan, and can drive up to 150 miles on a single charge according to the company. Amazon has installed thousands of electric vehicle charging stations at its delivery stations across North America and Europe.

Amazon explains it’s ambitious goals:

Along with custom electric delivery vehicles, Amazon is exploring new technologies, alternative fuels, and delivery methods that deliver packages to customers in a more sustainable way. Amazon currently operates thousands of electric vehicles worldwide and is redesigning its delivery stations to service electric vehicles—ranging from the electrical design to the physical layout. Last year, Amazon delivered more than 20 million packages to customers in electric delivery vehicles across North America and Europe and will continue building on that momentum in 2021.

Bob Chapek, CEO of Disney, discusses how Disney is transitioning to a direct-to-consumer company with less focus on the theatrical distribution of video content:

Accelerating Transition To Direct-To-Consumer Company

We want to accelerate our transition to a real direct-to-consumer priority company. We’ve got the opportunity to build upon the success of Disney+ which by almost any measure has been far and above anybody’s expectations. We really want to use this to catalyze our growth and increase shareholder wealth. In every territory and every platform, our expectations with Disney+ have been exceeded and exceeded every month. We’re thrilled with the way it’s going. We just think that this reorganization is going to catalyze growth even further.

I would not characterize (our reorganization) as a response to COVID but COVID accelerated the rate at which we made this transition. This transition was going to happen anyway. Essentially, what we want to do is separate out the folks who make our wonderful content based on tremendous franchises from the decision making in terms of where the prioritization is and how it gets commercialized into the marketplace.

We want to leave it to a group of folks who can really see objectively across all the constituents that we have and the various different considerations that we’ve got and make the optimal decision for the company. This is as opposed to somehow having it be predetermined that a movie is destined for theaters or that a TV show is destined for ABC. So really what we want to do is provide some level of objectivity and really make it a decision that benefits the overall company and its shareholders.

We’re Putting The Consumer First

What it says is that we’re putting the consumer first. The consumer is actually going to be who’s going to make this decision. They’re going to lead us with how they make their transactional decisions. Right now, they’re voting with their pocketbooks and they’re voting very heavily towards Disney+. We want to make sure that we’re going the way that the consumers want us to go.

Certainly, COVID has impacted all of our traditional distribution businesses. But this is even more than reactionary, this is really progressive. This is looking out with a vision towards where we see the world going and how we see that consumers are interacting with Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu and where it’s going to go in the future in our international business with Star. We’re trying to as they say skate to where the puck is going to be.

Less Theaters, More DTC

We’ve benefited from a tremendous relationship with theatrical exhibition for many years. As dynamics change in the marketplace though we want to make sure that we’re giving consumers who want to go to theaters, to experience everything that a theatrical release can give them, we want to make sure that we continue to give them that option.

At the same time, there are a lot of consumers that want to experience a movie in the safety, comfort, and convenience of their own home for whatever reasons they do. We want to make sure that we put the consumer first. Ultimately, the consumer is going to be making the decision in terms of how they consume our media as opposed to some arbitrary decision that we may make from a distribution standpoint. We want to look at ourselves as consumer enablers.

Richard Gelfond, CEO of IMAX, says that China and Asia, in general, are ahead of the rest of the world in feeling safe and resuming their lives including going to the movies:

When Is The Rest Of The World Going To Catch Up To China?

It’s remarkable that cinema capacity is constrained to 75% yet we did 25% better than our best year which was last year. That’s clearly an indication that people feel safe and in fact, they are safe. They really want to resume their lives. They want to go back to the movies. They want to go back to restaurants. They want to do a lot of things. China in particular, but Asia in general, is ahead of the western world. It hasn’t gone as smoothly in a lot of businesses as it’s gone in China but the indications are quite good that they want to get back to normal.

I don’t think that the message in the rest of the world is survival. From the China experience, we know that there’s a pent-up demand for going to the cinema. We know that when people feel safe and healthy they’re going to go. In the United States, on the other hand, that’s the other end of the spectrum, where people just don’t feel comfortable at this point in time. I don’t believe it’s an existential issue.

The lessons of China, not just from the National Day this weekend, you go back a few weeks ago to when the ‘The Eight Hundred’ came out and that did $115 million dollars in its opening weekend. That is in the top 10 Chinese local language movies of all time. The proof points are there. The question is when are the rest of the countries in the world going to catch up to China? When is Hollywood going to feel comfortable releasing their blockbuster movies globally where the rest of the world is like China.

China Is Largest IMAX Market In The World

We’ve done very well in China. We have about 700 plus screens open. We have another 300-ish in backlog. We’ve also signed a few deals this year in China, one with Wanda Cinemas and another one with a number of other operators. There’s great demand in China and as we speak we’re opening new screens there. There’s also a lot of dialogue going on. China is our largest market in the world for IMAX. It’s about 40% of our screens globally even though we’re in 82 countries. As a reference point, in North America, we have 400 screens.

In China, we have 700 screens with several hundred still to go. So the demand is growing there. The Chinese consumer really wants to go to the movies. The Chinese consumer is also brand conscious. They also want something innovative, the next forward-looking thing. It’s a terrifically promising market for us.

Saudi Arabia Is A Rapidly Growing Market

Japan is another market that has gone very well for us in recent years. We have about 30 to 35 theaters open with a backlog opening. In Korea, we just signed a large deal with CGV, the largest cinema operator there. We have 16 open now and we’re opening another eight or ten in Korea. Saudi Arabia is also a rapidly growing market. There was no cinema in Saudi Arabia until about a year ago.

Since it’s opened it’s been very successful. We have 25 theaters slated to open in Saudi Arabia. In Saudi Arabia, we can’t build them fast enough. Western Europe, also once it starts to feel safe again and cinema gets back to normal, that’s a very good market as well.

Non-IMAX Cinemas Have Short-Term Cash Issues

What happens between now and the vaccine? For IMAX, we have a very strong balance sheet. We have over $315 million in cash and our cash burn is less than $9 million a month. But now that China’s open it’ll be significantly less than that. So for us, we have a long runway and a lot of staying power. For cinemas, in general, they tend to be much more levered than we are so there will be some short-term cash issues.

What they’re going to have to do is just manage their spend rates until there’s a vaccine and Hollywood releases more films so they can come back in a direct way. Most of the major ones have raised capital during the last several months with the financial markets being very amenable. So I suspect a lot of them will make it through it but it’s a matter of cost control and how soon they reopens.

America Didn’t Open Theaters Up As Quickly As China

In China, there is a lot of local content as well as in Japan. IMAX has been in China since around the year 2000. We have lots of relationships with filmmakers and studios in China. We have 10 local language films available between now and the rest of the year. So there’s a lot of content going on there. I think movies got pushed because, in North America, it didn’t open up as quickly as China opened up.

There are a few reasons for that. One is people just don’t feel as good about the virus and they’re leerier about going to out-of-home experiences. It didn’t happen the same way it happened in China. Also in China, they were very intelligent about the way they reopened. They opened about a month before some of the blockbuster movies came out so people got comfortable going to theaters. Then when the movies opened it was just a natural progression.

In the US, because of local regulation, it happened very suddenly and then the movies came out right away. People really weren’t conditioned to go. A lot of people, if you read the polling data, didn’t even know the cinemas were open. In terms of Disney’s Mulan, the results were not as good in China as was expected but I think that probably had more to do with how the movie played rather than any safety concerns.